Mutualistic networks formed by plants and their pollinators are considered the "architecture" of biodiversity and have played a crucial role in maintaining Earth's diversity. However, global change can lead to the collapse of these networks and the vital services they provide, such as the pollination of agricultural fields. A team of researchers from the Spanish National Research Council (CSIC) has now identified indicators that could predict the "tipping point", enabling them to take measures to prevent collapse.

The study, which was published in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, is based on an analysis of 79 mutualistic communities. "It was previously unknown whether the indicators of proximity to a tipping point, which are valid for simple systems, would be equally applicable to more complex ones, such as the networks of mutual dependence between species," explains CSIC researcher Jordi Bascompte, from the Doñana Biological Station. He adds, "In this study, we've confirmed that an increase in the variance and autocorrelation of species biomass time series allows us to predict the moment when the 'network of life' is heading toward collapse."

In ecosystems, the response to disturbances tends to be abrupt, not gradual. That's why, Bascompte notes, "it's very important to have the ability to predict when a system is on the verge of transitioning to a different state. It's relatively easy to reverse the consequences of global change before we cross this threshold, but once it's crossed, it becomes very complex to do so."

As a next step, the research team plans to extend this predictive theory to other complex networks, such as those that describe genetic regulation or social systems. This could allow for measures to be taken before the threshold to collapse is exceeded.