About the talk

Ecologists have traditionally focused on the long-term behavior of ecosystems, neglecting short-term dynamics. While intuitively this position seems to make sense, many recent perspectives from various disciplines suggest the opposite: it is the transient dynamics that is relevant. In this talk, I will present recently published results from the analysis of the aerial surveys of migratory wintering waterfowl in Doñana over the last 40 years. Our study provides empirical evidence for the existence of a catastrophic bifurcation triggered by a tipping point in the dynamics of an endangered vertebrate community, highlighting the relevance of history, transiency and multi-stability in explaining current patterns in biological conservation. 

About the speaker

About the speaker: I hold an Msc in Mathematics and a PhD in Marine Sciences and Technologies. My work lies in the intersection of statistical mathematics and quantitative ecology, using Bayesian hierarchical approaches to model populations and communities dynamics in space and time. Currently, I focus on understanding how natural ecological communities persist in variable environments using state-of-the-art tools from dynamical systems theory, such as the topology of global attractors and the relevance of transient dynamics. See my lab's website: https://robustecologies.github.io, and Bluesky profile: @palmaraz.bsky.social‬ 

Publication: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2024...